86 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
86 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
# 2026-03-26
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## Evening Briefing (8:15 PM ET)
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Generated and posted to dashboard. Cron job `a954399d-6f5c-4811-9b0f-dc2a4b83833e`.
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**Markets:**
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- S&P 500: 6,477.10 (−1.74% / −114.80) — $900B-$1T equity value erased
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- Nasdaq: −2.3% (tech-led selloff)
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- Dow: −1.4%
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- NVDA: −10%+, META: −7.92% (jury ordered $375M for harm to minors, Reality Labs layoffs)
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**AI/Tech:**
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- Claude Code v2 released — PowerShell tool (Windows preview), hooks, env vars
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- Alex Finn: "AI killed dumb software, not all software" — niche problem-solving remains valuable
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**Trump/Iran:**
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- Reports: Trump weighing ground operation on Iran's Kharg Island oil hub
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- Trump claims Iran allowed 8-10 tankers through Hormuz as goodwill gesture
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**Posted to dashboard:**
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- Briefing: id 23a12629
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- News items: market selloff, Claude Code v2, Trump/Iran, Alex Finn insight, Clarivate AI50
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**Discord DM sent** to johanjongsma with dashboard link.
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---
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## Rozemarijn (Roos) Study Session — Lecture 7 + Lecture 8
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**Session:** All-day study session, ~10:20 AM – 5:38 PM ET
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**User:** Rozemarijn (Discord ID: 1486461895136252115, username: rozemarijn)
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**Exam:** Real Estate Research, Thu April 2, 2026, 2 hours, Univ. of Groningen
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### Lecture 7 — COMPLETED ✅
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All slides covered. Key topics:
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- Functional form (linear, log-linear, log-log) and interpretation of coefficients
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- Polynomials (concave/convex functions, x²)
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- Endogeneity — omitted variable bias, dirty x
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- Durbin-Wu-Hausman test (test for endogeneity)
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- IV / 2SLS: instrument validity (relevance + exogeneity), two-stage procedure
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- Weak instrument test: F-statistic > 10 rule of thumb
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- Interaction variables (city-specific slopes)
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- Transformations summary table (linear/log-linear/log-log)
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**Roos' weak areas noted:**
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- Needed multiple explanations of predicted value x̂ (eventually understood with numeric example + analogy)
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- λ notation confused her (explained it's just Stage 1 β)
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- Prefers: consistent notation, always show formulas, explain in steps
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- Can switch to Dutch when struggling
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### Lecture 8 — IN PROGRESS (slide 17 of 24)
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Topics covered so far:
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- TRUE model (y = x₁β₁ + x₂β₂ + ε)
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- Restricted vs Unrestricted model (pooled vs separate group lines)
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- Number of parameter restrictions: DF1 = (g-1)×k, DF2 = n - g×k
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- Chow test — full calculation with wage differentials example (F=1.30, reject H₀)
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- What to report after Chow test (RSS + k always, pooled vs separate based on result)
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- CLRM assumptions A1–A5 (Roos knows A4 well; A1/A2/A3/A5 need drilling)
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- Consistency vs Efficiency (A4 violation = biased = worst; A2/A3 = inefficient SE)
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- Slide 17: 4 tests overview (F-test, Chow test, White's test, RESET/functional form test)
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**Still to cover in lecture 8:**
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- Slide 18: F-test statistic formula (has diagram)
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- Slides 19-20: White's test for heteroskedasticity (detail)
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- Slide 21: Cross-sectional data analysis workflow
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- Slides 22-24: Formative test exercises (Exercise 1 + Exercise 2)
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### Roos' Notation Preferences (STRICT — always follow)
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From her green table image:
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1. E(μₜ) = 0
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2. var(μₜ) = σ² < ∞
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3. cov(μᵢ, μⱼ) = 0
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4. cov(μₜ, xₜ) = 0
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5. μₜ ~ N(0, σ²)
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Always use μ (not ε or u) for error term when tutoring Roos.
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Always consistent notation — no variation between explanations.
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### Mirror To-Do List Created
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Full study plan written out per day (March 26 – April 2).
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Roos has Paradiso performance Fri evening + concert Sat evening (social commitments noted in study plan).
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### CLRM Drilling Needed
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Roos explicitly flagged she needs to know A1–A5 by heart.
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- ✅ A4 — understood well
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- ⏳ A1, A2, A3, A5 — come back to drill these before exam
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